Sieve-based confidence intervals and bands for L\'{e}vy densities

The estimation of the L\'{e}vy density, the infinite-dimensional parameter controlling the jump dynamics of a L\'{e}vy process, is considered here under a discrete-sampling scheme. In this setting, the jumps are latent variables, the statistical properties of which can be assessed when the frequency and time horizon of observations increase to infinity at suitable rates. Nonparametric estimators for the L\'{e}vy density based on Grenander's method of sieves was proposed in Figueroa-L\'{o}pez [IMS Lecture Notes 57 (2009) 117--146]. In this paper, central limit theorems for these sieve estimators, both pointwise and uniform on an interval away from the origin, are obtained, leading to pointwise confidence intervals and bands for the L\'{e}vy density. In the pointwise case, our estimators converge to the L\'{e}vy density at a rate that is arbitrarily close to the rate of the minimax risk of estimation on smooth L\'{e}vy densities. In the case of uniform bands and discrete regular sampling, our results are consistent with the case of density estimation, achieving a rate of order arbitrarily close to $\log^{-1/2}(n)\cdot n^{-1/3}$, where $n$ is the number of observations. The convergence rates are valid, provided that $s$ is smooth enough and that the time horizon $T_n$ and the dimension of the sieve are appropriately chosen in terms of $n$.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ286 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Small-time asymptotics of stopped L\'evy bridges and simulation schemes with controlled bias

We characterize the small-time asymptotic behavior of the exit probability of a L\'evy process out of a two-sided interval and of the law of its overshoot, conditionally on the terminal value of the process. The asymptotic expansions are given in the form of a first-order term and a precise computable error bound. As an important application of these formulas, we develop a novel adaptive discretization scheme for the Monte Carlo computation of functionals of killed L\'evy processes with controlled bias. The considered functionals appear in several domains of mathematical finance (e.g., structural credit risk models, pricing of barrier options, and contingent convertible bonds) as well as in natural sciences. The proposed algorithm works by adding discretization points sampled from the L\'evy bridge density to the skeleton of the process until the overall error for a given trajectory becomes smaller than the maximum tolerance given by the user.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/13-BEJ517 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

High-order short-time expansions for ATM option prices of exponential L\'evy models

In the present work, a novel second-order approximation for ATM option prices is derived for a large class of exponential L\'{e}vy models with or without Brownian component. The results hereafter shed new light on the connection between both the volatility of the continuous component and the jump parameters and the behavior of ATM option prices near expiration. In the presence of a Brownian component, the second-order term, in time-$t$, is of the form $d_{2}\,t^{(3-Y)/2}$, with $d_{2}$ only depending on $Y$, the degree of jump activity, on $\sigma$, the volatility of the continuous component, and on an additional parameter controlling the intensity of the "small" jumps (regardless of their signs). This extends the well known result that the leading first-order term is $\sigma t^{1/2}/\sqrt{2\pi}$. In contrast, under a pure-jump model, the dependence on $Y$ and on the separate intensities of negative and positive small jumps are already reflected in the leading term, which is of the form $d_{1}t^{1/Y}$. The second-order term is shown to be of the form $\tilde{d}_{2} t$ and, therefore, its order of decay turns out to be independent of $Y$. The asymptotic behavior of the corresponding Black-Scholes implied volatilities is also addressed. Our approach is sufficiently general to cover a wide class of L\'{e}vy processes which satisfy the latter property and whose L\'{e}vy densitiy can be closely approximated by a stable density near the origin. Our numerical results show that the first-order term typically exhibits rather poor performance and that the second-order term can significantly improve the approximation's accuracy, particularly in the absence of a Brownian component.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figures. This is an extension of our earlier submission arXiv:1112.3111. To appear in Mathematical Financ